Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints26
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds12
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints25
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–96
- Q411.7Clint Capela makes tip shot119–96
- Q413.6Clint Capela offensive rebound117–96
- Q413.6Clint Capela misses tip shot117–96
- Q413.6Clint Capela offensive rebound117–96
- Q414.2Jae'Sean Tate misses 6-foot two point shot117–96
- Q433.1Bronny James makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot117–96
- Q442.1Jae'Sean Tate makes driving layup (Aaron Holiday assists)117–93
- Q455.5Dalton Knecht makes two point shot (Maxi Kleber assists)115–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:35Tari Eason makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 3 – 0 LAL · HOU 53% → 59% +6HOU 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q18:06Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)HOU 12 – 6 LAL · HOU 60% → 66% +6HOU 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q25:15Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 48 – 38 LAL · HOU 70% → 77% +7HOU 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q24:59Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)HOU 48 – 41 LAL · LAL 23% → 30% +7LAL 23% → 30%+7 pts
- Q24:16Jarred Vanderbilt makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)HOU 48 – 44 LAL · LAL 30% → 37% +7LAL 30% → 37%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML HOU -125 / LAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- HOU 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 40.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- LAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 116.5 – 115.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +47 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +67 Elo | LAL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.5 | Points scored | 117.713th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 117.418th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.8 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.4 | Offense rating | 116.77th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 116.424th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.6 | Pace | 100.722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 7–413th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149317th of 30 |
| 10th of 301561 | Elo rating | 154111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–12 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–12 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–10 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–4 LAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.