Houston Rockets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints22
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints41
- James HardenAssists6
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–128
- Q40.0(00:00) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)108–128
- Q40.0Jeff Green makes 45-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)108–128
- Q42.3shot clock turnover105–128
- Q426.3JD Davison out of bounds bad pass turnover105–128
- Q433.2Bogdan Bogdanovic bad pass
turnover (Clint Capela steals)105–128
- Q450.4Aaron Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)105–128
- Q452.0Jae'Sean Tate offensive rebound102–128
- Q455.0Aaron Holiday misses 26-foot running jump shot102–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:25James Harden makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 58 – 63 LAC · LAC 39% → 48% +8LAC 39% → 48%+8 pts
- Q39:45Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)HOU 64 – 70 LAC · LAC 44% → 53% +9LAC 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q39:03Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 67 – 72 LAC · HOU 40% → 49% +9HOU 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q34:50Kawhi Leonard makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 75 – 84 LAC · LAC 58% → 68% +10LAC 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q34:14John Collins makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)HOU 75 – 87 LAC · LAC 68% → 77% +9LAC 68% → 77%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML HOU -290 / LAC +235
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6.5
- HOU 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 73.4%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -249
- LAC +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 113.5 – 106.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | −45 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +176 Elo | HOU 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.0 | Points scored | 110.628th of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 116.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.8 | Margin | −5.425th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.4 | Offense rating | 111.324th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 116.626th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.529th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 4–825th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15226th of 30 |
| 7th of 301589 | Elo rating | 146216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–11 | 9–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–11 | 2–11 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–10 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–3 LAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Dec 11LAC 113 @ HOU 115Picked HOU 76%Hit
- Apr 9HOU 117 @ LAC 134Picked LAC 81%Hit
- Dec 8HOU 117 @ LAC 106Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Nov 15LAC 104 @ HOU 125Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Nov 13LAC 103 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 63%Hit
- Apr 14HOU 116 @ LAC 105Picked HOU 63%Hit
- Mar 6LAC 122 @ HOU 116Picked LAC 64%Hit
- Nov 17HOU 100 @ LAC 106Picked HOU 52%Miss