Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints24
- Cade CunninghamAssists14
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints37
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–127
- Q412.6Jalen Duren defensive rebound136–127
- Q416.8DeMar DeRozan misses 30-foot three point jumper136–127
- Q425.3Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2136–127
- Q425.3Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2135–127
- Q425.3Nique Clifford personal take foul134–127
- Q426.4Russell Westbrook makes driving layup134–127
- Q433.2Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2134–125
- Q433.2Pistons offensive team rebound133–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:01Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot running jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 3 – 2 SAC · DET 74% → 79% +5DET 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q19:41Precious Achiuwa makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)DET 5 – 8 SAC · SAC 23% → 28% +5SAC 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q19:22Jalen Duren makes tip in dunkDET 7 – 8 SAC · DET 72% → 75% +3DET 72% → 75%+3 pts
- Q17:29Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three pointerDET 14 – 12 SAC · DET 75% → 80% +5DET 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q14:57Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 23 – 16 SAC · DET 82% → 86% +4DET 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML DET -425 / SAC +330
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7.5
- DET 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- DET: Elo 77.7%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -348
- SAC +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 117.5 – 108.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | −77 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +217 Elo | DET 77.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 75.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 111.527th of 30 |
| 4th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 122.026th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.8 | Margin | −10.529th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 107.329th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 117.427th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.9 | Pace | 102.711th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–4 | Road vs home | 4–928th of 30 |
| 29th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 15561st of 30 |
| 6th of 301598 | Elo rating | 142524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–12 | 10–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 9–17 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.