Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints19
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Kon KnueppelRebounds7
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–112
- Q45.9Daniss Jenkins bad pass
turnover (Moussa Diabate steals)86–112
- Q429.9Tidjane Salaun makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)86–112
- Q437.1Marcus Sasser bad pass
turnover (Tidjane Salaun steals)83–112
- Q438.2Marcus Sasser defensive rebound83–112
- Q440.9Paul Reed blocks Tidjane Salaun 's 7-foot hook shot83–112
- Q457.8Ronald Holland II makes 1-foot running dunk (Marcus Sasser assists)83–112
- Q41:01Tidjane Salaun lost ball turnover (Javonte Green steals)83–110
- Q41:15Paul Reed offensive foul turnover83–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:01Isaiah Stewart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)CHA 45 – 45 DET · DET 66% → 74% +7DET 66% → 74%+7 pts
- Q411:42Sion James makes 27-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 75 – 79 DET · CHA 12% → 20% +8CHA 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q411:19Ronald Holland II makes driving layup (Cade Cunningham assists)CHA 75 – 81 DET · DET 80% → 85% +5DET 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q410:43Brandon Miller makes running layupCHA 77 – 81 DET · CHA 14% → 20% +6CHA 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q410:29Cade Cunningham makes driving layupCHA 77 – 83 DET · DET 80% → 86% +6DET 80% → 86%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DET -10.5
- ML CHA +380 / DET -500
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -9.5
- DET 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DET: Elo 82.2%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -400
- CHA +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 112.0 – 122.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +32 | CHA: Usual rotation · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +265 Elo | DET 82.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 78.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 78.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 119.110th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 113.17th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−3.2 | Margin | +6.05th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.19th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 109.32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.5 | Pace | 102.811th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 11–23rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 147827th of 30 |
| 29th of 301376 | Elo rating | 15887th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–13 | 15–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–17 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–5 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.