Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points32
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists6
- Bobby PortisRebounds7
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Jalen DurenRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–124
- Q44.6Thanasis Antetokounmpo personal foul112–124
- Q412.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunk (Cole Anthony assists)112–124
- Q414.2Daniss Jenkins bad pass (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)110–124
- Q424.9Andre Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2110–124
- Q424.9Andre Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2109–124
- Q424.9Daniss Jenkins loose ball foul108–124
- Q424.9Bucks offensive team rebound108–124
- Q425.5Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2108–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:45Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)MIL 9 – 10 DET · DET 80% → 84% +4DET 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q16:56Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)MIL 12 – 10 DET · MIL 16% → 21% +4MIL 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q16:26Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point shot (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 15 – 10 DET · MIL 21% → 26% +5MIL 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q14:47Jaden Ivey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)MIL 18 – 16 DET · DET 73% → 79% +5DET 73% → 79%+5 pts
- Q24:12Isaiah Stewart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)MIL 43 – 50 DET · DET 85% → 89% +4DET 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DET -12.5
- ML MIL +490 / DET -675
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -9.5
- DET 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- DET: Elo 82.3%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -514
- MIL +514 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 105.5 – 118.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −75 | +37 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +266 Elo | DET 82.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 80.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 80.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 83.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 118.512th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 113.35th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +5.27th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 114.511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 109.54th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.7 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 9–24th of 30 |
| 28th of 301473 | Opponent Elo | 148520th of 30 |
| 18th of 301465 | Elo rating | 15729th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–14 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–1 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Dec 3DET 109 @ MIL 113Picked DET 63%Miss
- Nov 22DET 129 @ MIL 116Picked DET 74%Hit
- Apr 13DET 133 @ MIL 140Picked DET 77%Miss
- Apr 11MIL 125 @ DET 119Picked DET 60%Miss
- Dec 3MIL 128 @ DET 107Picked MIL 57%Hit
- Nov 13DET 120 @ MIL 127Picked MIL 70%Hit
- Jan 22MIL 122 @ DET 113Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Jan 20MIL 141 @ DET 135Picked MIL 73%Hit