Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints43
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints28
- LaMelo BallAssists13
- Moussa DiabateRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–133
- Q41.5Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2126–133
- Q41.5Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 2126–132
- Q41.5Vit Krejci personal take foul126–131
- Q44.6Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)126–131
- Q49.8Luke Kennard enters the game for Dyson Daniels123–131
- Q49.8Hawks Full timeout123–131
- Q49.8Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2123–131
- Q49.8Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball123–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:47Tidjane Salaun makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)ATL 23 – 34 CHA · CHA 53% → 64% +11CHA 53% → 64%+11 pts
- Q45:29Kon Knueppel makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)ATL 114 – 119 CHA · CHA 58% → 75% +17CHA 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q43:55Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)ATL 116 – 122 CHA · CHA 68% → 84% +17CHA 68% → 84%+17 pts
- Q42:39Jalen Johnson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 121 – 122 CHA · ATL 21% → 44% +23ATL 21% → 44%+23 pts
- Q42:14LaMelo Ball makes driving layupATL 121 – 124 CHA · CHA 57% → 74% +18CHA 57% → 74%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML ATL -185 / CHA +154
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -165
- CHA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 122.5 – 118.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1363 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −14 | ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +127 Elo | ATL 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 114.819th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 118.424th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −3.619th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 112.120th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 115.621st of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.321st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 5th of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 5–824th of 30 |
| 21st of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 148620th of 30 |
| 15th of 301484 | Elo rating | 136328th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+28 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−19 Elo
Hornets
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–13 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 16–11 | 9–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–3 CHA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 23CHA 110 @ ATL 113Picked ATL 72%Hit
- Mar 18ATL 134 @ CHA 102Picked ATL 74%Hit
- Mar 12CHA 110 @ ATL 123Picked ATL 71%Hit
- Nov 30ATL 107 @ CHA 104Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Oct 25CHA 120 @ ATL 125Picked ATL 66%Hit
- Apr 10CHA 115 @ ATL 114Picked ATL 70%Miss
- Mar 23CHA 91 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 57%Hit
- Feb 14ATL 99 @ CHA 122Picked ATL 58%Miss