Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints22
- Jalen JohnsonAssists12
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Pistons- Isaiah StewartPoints17
- Caris LeVertAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–142
- Q48.8Daniss Jenkins bad pass (Vit Krejci steals)115–142
- Q428.8Paul Reed defensive rebound115–142
- Q432.0Keaton Wallace misses 8-foot pullup jump shot115–142
- Q447.3Paul Reed makes 4-foot dunk (Marcus Sasser assists)115–142
- Q41:05Keaton Wallace makes 26-foot three point shot (Zaccharie Risacher assists)115–140
- Q41:14Marcus Sasser makes two point shot (Daniss Jenkins assists)112–140
- Q41:15Daniss Jenkins defensive rebound112–138
- Q41:17Mouhamed Gueye misses 9-foot two point shot112–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:44Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 3 – 0 DET · ATL 29% → 35% +6ATL 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q19:23Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 8 – 6 DET · ATL 28% → 33% +6ATL 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q19:04Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)ATL 8 – 9 DET · DET 67% → 72% +6DET 67% → 72%+6 pts
- Q13:02Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)ATL 25 – 26 DET · ATL 23% → 29% +6ATL 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q28:53Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 41 – 45 DET · ATL 18% → 24% +5ATL 18% → 24%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML ATL +230 / DET -285
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- DET: Elo 71.0%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -244
- ATL +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 113.5 – 120.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +39 | ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −35, Trae Young −27 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +155 Elo | DET 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 118.78th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 113.36th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +5.56th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 115.09th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.5 | Pace | 102.99th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 10–23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 148025th of 30 |
| 16th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15757th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+4 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis injury/illness−35 Elo
- Trae Young right knee−27 Elo
Pistons
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–11 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–5 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Dec 1ATL 98 @ DET 99Picked DET 77%Hit
- Nov 18DET 120 @ ATL 112Picked DET 52%Hit
- Feb 23DET 148 @ ATL 143Picked DET 54%Hit
- Feb 3ATL 132 @ DET 130Picked DET 63%Miss
- Jan 22DET 114 @ ATL 104Picked ATL 60%Miss
- Nov 8ATL 121 @ DET 122Picked DET 55%Hit
- Apr 3DET 113 @ ATL 121Picked ATL 75%Hit
- Dec 18DET 124 @ ATL 130Picked ATL 75%Hit