Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints30
- Jalen JohnsonAssists12
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds12
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints28
- Bub CarringtonAssists9
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–116
- Q413.0shot clock turnover131–116
- Q435.3Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound131–116
- Q436.9Will Riley misses two point shot131–116
- Q443.6Wizards offensive team rebound131–116
- Q443.6Onyeka Okongwu blocks AJ Johnson 's 4-foot driving layup131–116
- Q452.1Wizards defensive team rebound131–116
- Q452.6Vit Krejci misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot131–116
- Q41:08Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound131–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q325.8Luke Kennard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 97 – 90 WSH · ATL 79% → 87% +8ATL 79% → 87%+8 pts
- Q34.7Will Riley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malaki Branham assists)ATL 97 – 93 WSH · WSH 13% → 21% +8WSH 13% → 21%+8 pts
- Q411:07Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)ATL 100 – 97 WSH · ATL 64% → 76% +11ATL 64% → 76%+11 pts
- Q48:59CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)ATL 105 – 100 WSH · WSH 10% → 18% +8WSH 10% → 18%+8 pts
- Q47:36Vit Krejci makes 28-foot three point jumper (Asa Newell assists)ATL 110 – 102 WSH · ATL 83% → 91% +8ATL 83% → 91%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -9.5
- ML ATL -425 / WSH +330
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -4.5
- ATL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.5%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -348
- WSH +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 123.5 – 114.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1271 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −3 | +5 | ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −36, Trae Young −29 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +127 Elo | ATL 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 70.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 112.225th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 128.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −15.930th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 107.228th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 122.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.5 | Pace | 103.75th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 2–728th of 30 |
| 18th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15148th of 30 |
| 16th of 301483 | Elo rating | 127130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−3 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis return to competition reconditioning−36 Elo
- Trae Young right mcl sprain−29 Elo
Wizards
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–11 | 6–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 6–13 |
| Overs–unders | 13–11 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–4 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Nov 25ATL 113 @ WSH 132Picked ATL 81%Miss
- Feb 8ATL 125 @ WSH 111Picked ATL 69%Hit
- Nov 15WSH 117 @ ATL 129Picked ATL 77%Hit
- Oct 30ATL 120 @ WSH 133Picked ATL 65%Miss
- Oct 28WSH 121 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 73%Miss
- Jan 13WSH 127 @ ATL 99Picked ATL 63%Miss
- Dec 31ATL 130 @ WSH 126Picked ATL 58%Hit
- Nov 25ATL 136 @ WSH 108Picked ATL 70%Hit