Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints35
- Quentin GrimesAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds14
Hawks- Dyson DanielsPoints27
- Jalen JohnsonAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–120
- Q40.076ers offensive team rebound117–120
- Q40.0Quentin Grimes misses 23-foot three point jumper117–120
- Q41.5Kyle Lowry enters the game for Dominick Barlow117–120
- Q41.576ers Full timeout117–120
- Q41.5Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2117–120
- Q41.5Dyson Daniels enters the game for Luke Kennard117–119
- Q41.5Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2117–119
- Q41.5VJ Edgecombe personal take foul117–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:14Paul George makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 109 – 111 ATL · PHI 17% → 33% +16PHI 17% → 33%+16 pts
- Q43:31Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)PHI 109 – 114 ATL · ATL 68% → 85% +17ATL 68% → 85%+17 pts
- Q42:04Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 112 – 114 ATL · PHI 9% → 29% +19PHI 9% → 29%+19 pts
- Q41:15Dyson Daniels makes 9-foot two point shot (Jalen Johnson assists)PHI 114 – 118 ATL · ATL 75% → 91% +15ATL 75% → 91%+15 pts
- Q41:03Quentin Grimes makes 24-foot three pointer (Paul George assists)PHI 117 – 118 ATL · PHI 7% → 35% +27PHI 7% → 35%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML PHI +145 / ATL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -156
- PHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 111.0 – 115.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +33 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Trae Young −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +69 Elo | ATL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 117.912th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 117.521st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.516th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 113.712th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.0 | Pace | 102.612th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 148421st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301439 | Elo rating | 148017th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+33 Elo- Trae Young right knee sprain−24 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–9 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–6 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 30ATL 142 @ PHI 134Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Apr 11ATL 124 @ PHI 110Picked ATL 84%Hit
- Mar 23PHI 119 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 79%Hit
- Mar 10PHI 123 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 78%Hit
- Feb 9ATL 127 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 53%Miss
- Jan 10PHI 132 @ ATL 139Picked ATL 50%Hit
- Dec 8ATL 114 @ PHI 125Picked PHI 71%Hit
- Nov 17PHI 126 @ ATL 116Picked ATL 51%Miss