Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints20
- Andrew NembhardAssists7
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints39
- Paul GeorgeAssists5
- Joel EmbiidRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–115
- Q43.2shot clock turnover105–115
- Q422.4Joel Embiid defensive rebound105–115
- Q425.6Andrew Nembhard misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot105–115
- Q436.9Joel Embiid makes 17-foot two point shot105–115
- Q456.776ers defensive team rebound105–113
- Q41:00Jay Huff misses 32-foot three point jumper105–113
- Q41:09Jay Huff defensive rebound105–113
- Q41:11Paul George misses 18-foot step back jumpshot105–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:27Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)IND 86 – 88 PHI · PHI 55% → 67% +11PHI 55% → 67%+11 pts
- Q49:51Quentin Grimes makes 29-foot three point jumper (Justin Edwards assists)IND 94 – 95 PHI · PHI 49% → 62% +14PHI 49% → 62%+14 pts
- Q43:43Dominick Barlow makes layup (Paul George assists)IND 102 – 104 PHI · PHI 55% → 69% +14PHI 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q42:56Joel Embiid makes two point shotIND 102 – 107 PHI · PHI 77% → 88% +11PHI 77% → 88%+11 pts
- Q42:36Jay Huff makes 28-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 105 – 108 PHI · IND 7% → 22% +15IND 7% → 22%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -5.5
- ML IND +190 / PHI -230
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.9%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -202
- IND +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 108.0 – 113.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +34 | IND: Usual rotation · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +13 Elo | PHI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 116.916th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 116.116th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.6 | Margin | +0.816th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 112.417th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 111.611th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.7 | Pace | 102.114th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148422nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301488 | Elo rating | 142922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–11 | 14–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–15 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–2 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.