Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints29
- Brandon MillerAssists6
- Brandon MillerRebounds13
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Jaylon TysonRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game119–111
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime119–111
- OT1.9Brandon Miller defensive rebound119–111
- OT5.7Darius Garland misses 25-foot three point jumper119–111
- OT8.3Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2119–111
- OT8.3Moussa Diabate enters the game for Tidjane Salaun118–111
- OT8.3Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2118–111
- OT8.3Jaylon Tyson personal foul117–111
- OT9.4Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound117–111
- OT10.9Donovan Mitchell misses 26-foot three point shot117–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:47Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tidjane Salaun assists)CHA 101 – 99 CLE · CHA 32% → 49% +17CHA 32% → 49%+17 pts
- Q42:35Kon Knueppel makes 7-foot pullup jump shotCHA 108 – 105 CLE · CHA 50% → 68% +17CHA 50% → 68%+17 pts
- Q42:10Dean Wade makes 1-foot layup (Darius Garland assists)CHA 108 – 107 CLE · CLE 30% → 48% +19CLE 30% → 48%+19 pts
- Q421.0Jaylon Tyson makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (Darius Garland assists)CHA 108 – 109 CLE · CLE 30% → 76% +46CLE 30% → 76%+46 pts
- Q44.7Brandon Miller makes 31-foot three pointer (Sion James assists)CHA 111 – 111 CLE · CHA <1% → 48% +48CHA <1% → 48%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -11.5
- ML CHA +455 / CLE -625
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11
- CLE 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 85.6%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -478
- CHA +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.5 – 122.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1342 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | −2 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +309 Elo | CLE 85.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 86.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 86.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.7 | Points scored | 119.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 115.813th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.0 | Margin | +3.211th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 114.810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 111.810th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.3 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 9–613th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 148025th of 30 |
| 28th of 301342 | Elo rating | 15718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–13 | 8–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–16 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–5 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.