Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints48
- Evan MobleyAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Wizards- Bub CarringtonPoints27
- Bub CarringtonAssists8
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–126
- Q40.0(00:00) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)130–126
- Q40.1Tristan Vukcevic makes layup130–126
- Q41.9Tristan Vukcevic offensive rebound130–124
- Q41.9CJ McCollum misses 26-foot three point shot130–124
- Q45.9Tristan Vukcevic enters the game for Marvin Bagley III130–124
- Q45.9Wizards Full timeout130–124
- Q45.9Donovan Mitchell makes two point shot (Dean Wade assists)130–124
- Q412.2Dean Wade defensive rebound128–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:21Jamir Watkins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)CLE 106 – 113 WSH · WSH 51% → 67% +15WSH 51% → 67%+15 pts
- Q42:58Lonzo Ball makes 24-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 119 – 120 WSH · CLE 30% → 54% +24CLE 30% → 54%+24 pts
- Q42:31Bub Carrington makes 12-foot two point shot (CJ McCollum assists)CLE 119 – 122 WSH · WSH 47% → 65% +18WSH 47% → 65%+18 pts
- Q42:14Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 122 – 122 WSH · CLE 33% → 61% +28CLE 33% → 61%+28 pts
- Q41:00Donovan Mitchell makes driving layupCLE 124 – 122 WSH · CLE 57% → 82% +24CLE 57% → 82%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -16.5
- ML CLE -1450 / WSH +850
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9.5
- CLE 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 81.7%, market 89.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -889
- WSH +889 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 131.0 – 114.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1263 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +6 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +260 Elo | CLE 81.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 86.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 86.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 89.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 112.425th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 128.330th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −15.930th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 107.428th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 122.630th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.1 | Pace | 103.65th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 2–828th of 30 |
| 16th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15139th of 30 |
| 8th of 301569 | Elo rating | 126330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–17 | 6–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 6–14 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 9–0 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 9.
- Nov 7CLE 148 @ WSH 115Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Feb 7CLE 134 @ WSH 124Picked CLE 93%Hit
- Dec 13WSH 105 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 91%Hit
- Dec 3WSH 87 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 90%Hit
- Oct 26CLE 135 @ WSH 116Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Feb 25CLE 114 @ WSH 105Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Feb 7CLE 114 @ WSH 106Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Jan 5WSH 90 @ CLE 114Picked CLE 76%Hit