Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints23
- Ryan NembhardAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game114–116
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime114–116
- OT0.6Javonte Green personal foul114–116
- OT0.9Javonte Green enters the game for Jalen Duren114–116
- OT0.9Klay Thompson enters the game for Naji Marshall114–116
- OT0.9Mavericks Full timeout114–116
- OT0.9Anthony Davis defensive rebound114–116
- OT0.9P.J. Washington blocks Jalen Duren's layup114–116
- OT3.5Jalen Duren offensive rebound114–116
- OT4.5Jalen Duren misses tip shot114–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:22Cade Cunningham makes 10-foot step back jumpshotDET 107 – 106 DAL · DET 41% → 65% +24DET 41% → 65%+24 pts
- Q452.3Cooper Flagg makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotDET 109 – 108 DAL · DAL 11% → 33% +22DAL 11% → 33%+22 pts
- Q419.2Cooper Flagg makes 12-foot pullup jump shotDET 109 – 110 DAL · DAL 25% → 73% +48DAL 25% → 73%+48 pts
- Q43.4Isaiah Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2DET 110 – 110 DAL · DET 7% → 51% +44DET 7% → 51%+44 pts
- OT1:32Anthony Davis makes 1-foot dunk (Cooper Flagg assists)DET 114 – 116 DAL · DAL 47% → 70% +22DAL 47% → 70%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -5.5
- ML DET -218 / DAL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 65.5%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -192
- DAL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 118.0 – 112.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +42 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +111 Elo | DET 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 112.925th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 116.818th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.3 | Margin | −3.922nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 107.728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.410th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.8 | Pace | 103.35th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 309–3 | Road vs home | 7–922nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Opponent Elo | 150611th of 30 |
| 6th of 301595 | Elo rating | 145518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–11 | 13–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–2 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.