Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints32
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Tobias HarrisRebounds7
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints34
- Jaylen BrownAssists7
- Jaylen BrownRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–105
- Q416.2Javonte Green defensive rebound112–105
- Q419.9Anfernee Simons misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot112–105
- Q424.3Duncan Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2112–105
- Q424.3Duncan Robinson makes free throw 1 of 2111–105
- Q424.3Anfernee Simons personal take foul110–105
- Q433.5Derrick White personal take foul110–105
- Q434.5Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson110–105
- Q434.5Pistons defensive team rebound110–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:08Derrick White makes 29-foot three point shot (Payton Pritchard assists)DET 93 – 90 BOS · BOS 23% → 36% +13BOS 23% → 36%+13 pts
- Q47:53Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three pointer (Duncan Robinson assists)DET 96 – 90 BOS · DET 64% → 77% +13DET 64% → 77%+13 pts
- Q43:09Derrick White makes 26-foot three point shot (Anfernee Simons assists)DET 104 – 100 BOS · BOS 8% → 21% +13BOS 8% → 21%+13 pts
- Q42:46Derrick White makes 8-foot two point shotDET 104 – 102 BOS · BOS 20% → 34% +14BOS 20% → 34%+14 pts
- Q41:32Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointerDET 108 – 105 BOS · BOS 4% → 19% +15BOS 4% → 19%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -1.5
- ML DET -102 / BOS -118
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.1%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -107
- DET +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 115.0 – 116.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1625 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −17 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +22 Elo | BOS 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 116.617th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 110.83rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.3 | Margin | +5.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 119.05th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.0 | Pace | 98.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 308–3 | Road vs home | 8–49th of 30 |
| 28th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 149016th of 30 |
| 7th of 301586 | Elo rating | 16254th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–11 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–7 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 26DET 114 @ BOS 117Picked DET 53%Miss
- Oct 26BOS 113 @ DET 119Picked DET 55%Hit
- Feb 26BOS 97 @ DET 117Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Dec 12DET 99 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 84%Hit
- Dec 4DET 120 @ BOS 130Picked BOS 86%Hit
- Oct 26BOS 124 @ DET 118Picked BOS 86%Hit
- Mar 22BOS 129 @ DET 102Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Mar 18DET 94 @ BOS 119Picked BOS 84%Hit