Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- Payton PritchardAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds10
Bucks- Kyle KuzmaPoints31
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists13
- Bobby PortisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–116
- Q40.0Celtics offensive team rebound101–116
- Q40.0Anfernee Simons misses heave jump shot101–116
- Q40.7shot clock turnover101–116
- Q424.7Sam Hauser out of bounds bad pass turnover101–116
- Q426.0Sam Hauser defensive rebound101–116
- Q429.4Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses two point shot101–116
- Q449.1Pete Nance defensive rebound101–116
- Q452.0Anfernee Simons misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot101–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:07Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)BOS 75 – 78 MIL · MIL 33% → 43% +10MIL 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q31:29Cole Anthony makes 1-foot two point shotBOS 79 – 85 MIL · MIL 50% → 58% +8MIL 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q331.2Cole Anthony makes 8-foot two point shotBOS 79 – 87 MIL · MIL 59% → 67% +8MIL 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q411:43Bobby Portis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)BOS 80 – 90 MIL · MIL 64% → 75% +11MIL 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q411:03Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)BOS 82 – 93 MIL · MIL 70% → 80% +10MIL 70% → 80%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -9.5
- ML BOS -410 / MIL +320
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 78.6%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -338
- MIL +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 116.0 – 106.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −81 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +226 Elo | BOS 78.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 75.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 115.119th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 118.021st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.7 | Margin | −2.919th of 30 |
| 5th of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 113.314th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 116.223rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.1 | Pace | 100.625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 7–717th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 147528th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301651 | Elo rating | 146218th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–10 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–2 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.