Detroit Pistons at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints25
- Deni AvdijaAssists9
- Donovan ClinganRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–102
- Q419.5Sidy Cissoko lost ball turnover (Javonte Green steals)110–102
- Q423.2Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound110–102
- Q427.3Jalen Duren misses free throw 2 of 2110–102
- Q427.3Tobias Harris enters the game for Duncan Robinson110–102
- Q427.3Pistons offensive team rebound110–102
- Q427.3Jalen Duren misses free throw 1 of 2110–102
- Q427.3Kris Murray enters the game for Toumani Camara110–102
- Q427.3Toumani Camara personal take foul110–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:14Donovan Clingan makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)DET 99 – 95 POR · POR 12% → 23% +11POR 12% → 23%+11 pts
- Q44:49Deni Avdija makes driving layupDET 99 – 97 POR · POR 21% → 32% +11POR 21% → 32%+11 pts
- Q44:13Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)DET 99 – 100 POR · POR 31% → 51% +20POR 31% → 51%+20 pts
- Q43:34Ausar Thompson makes 2-foot driving dunkDET 103 – 100 POR · DET 63% → 76% +13DET 63% → 76%+13 pts
- Q42:49Jalen Duren makes two point shotDET 105 – 100 POR · DET 78% → 88% +11DET 78% → 88%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML DET -245 / POR +200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- DET: Elo 70.4%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -213
- POR +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 120.5 – 114.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | +16 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −47, Jrue Holiday −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +150 Elo | DET 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 118.015th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 121.325th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.8 | Margin | −3.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 111.721st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 114.821st of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.1 | Pace | 104.83rd of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 4th of 309–4 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 301473 | Opponent Elo | 15303rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301594 | Elo rating | 144021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+16 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles rehab−47 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−22 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–12 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–1 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.