Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints23
- Cooper FlaggAssists5
- Dwight PowellRebounds11
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints21
- Russell WestbrookAssists9
- Nique CliffordRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–113
- Q41.8Dennis Schroder defensive rebound107–113
- Q45.7Klay Thompson misses 22-foot three point jumper107–113
- Q49.0Klay Thompson enters the game for Naji Marshall107–113
- Q49.0Dylan Cardwell enters the game for DeMar DeRozan107–113
- Q49.0Mavericks Full timeout107–113
- Q49.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2107–113
- Q49.0Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Doug McDermott107–112
- Q49.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2107–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:10Cooper Flagg makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 58 – 66 SAC · DAL 22% → 29% +8DAL 22% → 29%+8 pts
- Q36:36Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)DAL 63 – 71 SAC · SAC 63% → 72% +9SAC 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q36:16Cooper Flagg makes 24-foot three pointerDAL 66 – 71 SAC · DAL 28% → 37% +9DAL 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q35:51Russell Westbrook makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)DAL 68 – 74 SAC · SAC 56% → 66% +10SAC 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q35:21Keon Ellis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dylan Cardwell assists)DAL 68 – 77 SAC · SAC 66% → 75% +9SAC 66% → 75%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -2.5
- ML DAL -142 / SAC +120
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -0.5
- DAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 51.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -129
- SAC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 118.0 – 115.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | −65 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +8 Elo | DAL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.7 | Points scored | 112.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 122.527th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.9 | Margin | −10.529th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 107.829th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 117.927th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 102.711th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 4–1028th of 30 |
| 9th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15551st of 30 |
| 19th of 301442 | Elo rating | 142223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–17 | 11–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders | 15–17 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–5 SAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.