Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints35
- Ryan NembhardAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds17
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints24
- Derik QueenAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–119
- Q47.2Cooper Flagg bad pass
turnover (Jose Alvarado steals)113–119
- Q410.4Klay Thompson enters the game for Daniel Gafford113–119
- Q410.4Mavericks Full timeout113–119
- Q410.4Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2113–119
- Q410.4Daniel Gafford enters the game for Caleb Martin113–118
- Q410.4Jose Alvarado enters the game for Derik Queen113–118
- Q410.4Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2113–118
- Q410.4Naji Marshall personal foul113–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:55Jordan Poole makes 23-foot running jump shot (Derik Queen assists)DAL 98 – 98 NO · NO 34% → 50% +16NO 34% → 50%+16 pts
- Q46:28Trey Murphy III makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)DAL 98 – 101 NO · NO 50% → 66% +16NO 50% → 66%+16 pts
- Q45:44Ryan Nembhard makes running layup (Anthony Davis assists)DAL 102 – 101 NO · DAL 44% → 56% +12DAL 44% → 56%+12 pts
- Q45:14Derik Queen makes driving layupDAL 102 – 103 NO · NO 44% → 56% +13NO 44% → 56%+13 pts
- Q43:50Zion Williamson makes 3-foot layup (Jose Alvarado assists)DAL 103 – 107 NO · NO 64% → 77% +13NO 64% → 77%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML DAL -112 / NO -108
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- DAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 57.5%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -102
- NO +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 121.5 – 120.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +65 | +47 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +52 Elo | DAL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 115.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 122.527th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.8 | Margin | −7.227th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 111.622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 118.528th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.917th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–8 | Road vs home | 5–1228th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15323rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301452 | Elo rating | 138228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–15 | 18–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–4 NO in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Nov 21NO 115 @ DAL 118Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Nov 5NO 101 @ DAL 99Picked DAL 72%Miss
- Feb 21NO 103 @ DAL 111Picked DAL 68%Hit
- Jan 29DAL 137 @ NO 136Picked NO 50%Miss
- Jan 15DAL 116 @ NO 119Picked NO 51%Hit
- Nov 19NO 91 @ DAL 132Picked DAL 86%Hit
- Jan 15NO 120 @ DAL 125Picked NO 62%Miss
- Jan 13NO 118 @ DAL 108Picked DAL 59%Miss