Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints22
- T.J. McConnellAssists8
- Jay HuffRebounds6
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints29
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–128
- Q420.6Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound107–128
- Q422.6Garrison Mathews misses free throw 2 of 2107–128
- Q422.6Garrison Mathews makes free throw 1 of 2107–128
- Q422.6Karlo Matkovic shooting foul106–128
- Q426.7Micah Peavy kicked ball violation106–128
- Q436.5Jeremiah Fears bad pass
turnover (Garrison Mathews steals)106–128
- Q441.7James Wiseman makes 5-foot dunk (Quenton Jackson assists)106–128
- Q449.6Yves Missi makes 1-foot reverse layup104–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:15Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot running jump shot (Herbert Jones assists)IND 0 – 3 NO · NO 54% → 60% +6NO 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q110:27Herbert Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)IND 4 – 6 NO · NO 52% → 58% +6NO 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q19:28Pascal Siakam makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 7 – 8 NO · IND 38% → 44% +6IND 38% → 44%+6 pts
- Q28:47Jarace Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 39 – 46 NO · IND 24% → 30% +6IND 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q310:20Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 56 – 67 NO · IND 13% → 18% +5IND 13% → 18%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NO -2.5
- ML IND +110 / NO -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1
- NO 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NO: Elo 53.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NO -119
- IND +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.5 – 119.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1368 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | +43 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +24 Elo | NO 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 114.920th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 123.028th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.9 | Margin | −8.128th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 111.422nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 119.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.1 | Pace | 101.618th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–11 | Road vs home | 4–1228th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15372nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301445 | Elo rating | 136829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–13 | 17–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 10–17 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–2 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.