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Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalFanDuel SN IN, MNMT

Away

Wizards

4-20

108–89

at

Home

Pacers

6-20

WSH 22%IND 78%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · FanDuel SN IN, MNMT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored WSH favored105 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%WSH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Wizards
Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game108–89
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–89
  • Q423.8Bub Carrington makes 5-foot two point shot (CJ McCollum assists)108–89
  • Q445.1Marvin Bagley III defensive rebound106–89
  • Q448.7Ethan Thompson misses 23-foot three point jumper106–89
  • Q458.6Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound106–89
  • Q41:01CJ McCollum misses 19-foot pullup jump shot106–89
  • Q41:19Kyshawn George defensive rebound106–89
  • Q41:22Jarace Walker misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot106–89
  • Q41:39CJ McCollum makes 10-foot pullup jump shot106–89

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q23:03Tre Johnson makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 50 – 43 IND · WSH 38% → 47% +8
  2. Q21:50Kyshawn George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)WSH 55 – 45 IND · WSH 48% → 56% +8
  3. Q39:05Jay Huff makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)WSH 66 – 54 IND · IND 25% → 33% +8
  4. Q36:10CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 69 – 58 IND · WSH 58% → 68% +10
  5. Q34:53CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 73 – 58 IND · WSH 73% → 81% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Pacers 78%

StrongMiss
WSH 22%IND 78%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.

Market
IND -10.5
ML WSH +330 / IND -425
Pre-line forecast
IND 80%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
IND -8.5
IND 80%
Ratings vs. market
+1.9 pts
IND: Elo 79.6%, market 77.7%
Fair odds
IND -348
WSH +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WSH 111.5 – 122.0 IND
Posted spread, posted total 233.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWSHINDWhy
Team rating12611478Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+9−7WSH: Missing Khris Middleton −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsIND +237 EloIND 79.6%
Market-implied ratingsIND 80.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastIND 80.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastIND 77.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

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Washington Wizards and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
WSHStatIND
25th of 30113.0Points scored111.029th of 30
30th of 30128.3Points allowed118.723rd of 30
30th of 30−15.3Margin−7.725th of 30
27th of 30108.0Offense rating107.429th of 30
30th of 30122.7Defense rating114.719th of 30
5th of 30103.7Pace102.513th of 30
27th of 302–8Last 104–618th of 30
29th of 301–11Road vs home5–823rd of 30
8th of 301516Opponent Elo150015th of 30
30th of 301261Elo rating147818th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Wizards

+9 Elo
  • Khris Middleton right knee contusion−20 Elo

Pacers

−7 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

WizardsPacers
12001300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWSHIND
Against the spread7–1613–12
Last 105–57–3
Favorite0–22–2
Underdog7–1411–10
Overs–unders15–89–16
Overs–unders, last 106–43–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WSH 1–7 IND in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.