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New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalFanDuel SN IN, MSG

Away

Knicks

19-7

114–113

at

Home

Pacers

6-21

NY 59%IND 41%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · FanDuel SN IN, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored NY favored113 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks
Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game114–113
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
  • Q40.8Tyler Kolek offensive rebound114–113
  • Q40.8Pascal Siakam blocks OG Anunoby 's 4-foot driving layup114–113
  • Q43.5Jay Huff bad pass turnover (OG Anunoby steals)114–113
  • Q44.4Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Trey Jemison III114–113
  • Q44.4Mohamed Diawara enters the game for Jalen Brunson114–113
  • Q44.4Jay Huff enters the game for Quenton Jackson114–113
  • Q44.4Garrison Mathews enters the game for Isaiah Jackson114–113
  • Q44.4Pacers Full timeout114–113

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q46:39Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 102 – 104 IND · IND 41% → 58% +17
  2. Q41:51OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 111 – 111 IND · NY 23% → 52% +29
  3. Q416.9Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2NY 111 – 112 IND · IND 49% → 75% +25
  4. Q416.9Pascal Siakam makes free throw 2 of 2NY 111 – 113 IND · IND 75% → 91% +16
  5. Q45.6Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 114 – 113 IND · NY <1% → 88% +87

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 59%

LeanHit
NY 59%IND 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
NY -3.5
ML NY -162 / IND +136
Pre-line forecast
NY 68%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -5
NY 69%
Ratings vs. market
+10.1 pts
NY: Elo 69.5%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
NY -146
IND +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 115.0 – 111.5 IND
Posted spread, posted total 226.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYINDWhy
Team rating16401447Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−32−18NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +143 EloNY 69.5%
Market-implied ratingsNY 68.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 68.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatIND
3rd of 30121.1Points scored110.230th of 30
4th of 30112.3Points allowed118.323rd of 30
4th of 30+8.8Margin−8.127th of 30
2nd of 30120.4Offense rating107.030th of 30
12th of 30111.6Defense rating114.819th of 30
25th of 30100.5Pace102.114th of 30
1st of 309–1Last 104–616th of 30
16th of 304–6Road vs home5–925th of 30
28th of 301476Opponent Elo149316th of 30
3rd of 301640Elo rating144720th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

−32 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

−18 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksPacers
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYIND
Against the spread17–913–13
Last 109–16–4
Favorite16–72–3
Underdog1–211–10
Overs–unders14–129–17
Overs–unders, last 104–63–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 8–11 IND in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.