San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Dylan HarperPoints21
- Stephon CastleAssists12
- Dylan HarperRebounds7
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints28
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–124
- Q48.3Josh Hart makes 3-foot layup (Tyler Kolek assists)113–124
- Q418.8Dylan Harper makes 29-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)113–122
- Q421.8Tyler Kolek makes running layup (Jalen Brunson assists)110–122
- Q426.7OG Anunoby defensive rebound110–120
- Q430.2Stephon Castle misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot110–120
- Q434.3Tyler Kolek makes free throw 2 of 2110–120
- Q434.3Tyler Kolek makes free throw 1 of 2110–119
- Q434.3Devin Vassell personal take foul110–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:48Jordan Clarkson makes 27-foot three pointer (Mitchell Robinson assists)SA 94 – 94 NY · NY 39% → 52% +13NY 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q410:27Jordan Clarkson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mitchell Robinson assists)SA 94 – 97 NY · NY 52% → 65% +13NY 52% → 65%+13 pts
- Q49:28OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumperSA 95 – 100 NY · NY 61% → 74% +13NY 61% → 74%+13 pts
- Q45:26Stephon Castle makes 24-foot running jump shot (Devin Vassell assists)SA 105 – 108 NY · SA 17% → 31% +14SA 17% → 31%+14 pts
- Q43:41Jalen Brunson makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotSA 107 – 112 NY · NY 73% → 84% +11NY 73% → 84%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML SA +114 / NY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1.5
- NY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- NY: Elo 56.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -123
- SA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 115.5 – 118.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +79 | +41 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +48 Elo | NY 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 60.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.7 | Points scored | 121.03rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 112.24th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +8.84th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 120.12nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 111.49th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.1 | Pace | 100.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 147329th of 30 |
| 12th of 301545 | Elo rating | 16313rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–10 | 16–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 15–7 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–2 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.