Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints24
- Brandon WilliamsAssists5
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints38
- Quentin GrimesAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–121
- Q420.576ers defensive team rebound114–121
- Q420.5Klay Thompson misses 27-foot three point jumper114–121
- Q423.3Klay Thompson enters the game for Brandon Williams114–121
- Q423.3Mavericks Full timeout114–121
- Q423.3Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2114–121
- Q423.3Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2114–120
- Q423.3Brandon Williams personal take foul114–119
- Q424.8Cooper Flagg personal take foul114–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:56VJ Edgecombe makes 28-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)DAL 92 – 90 PHI · PHI 32% → 43% +11PHI 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q31:47Klay Thompson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 95 – 90 PHI · DAL 57% → 68% +11DAL 57% → 68%+11 pts
- Q411:48Jared McCain makes 26-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)DAL 97 – 94 PHI · PHI 27% → 39% +11PHI 27% → 39%+11 pts
- Q411:04Adem Bona makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)DAL 98 – 97 PHI · PHI 34% → 47% +13PHI 34% → 47%+13 pts
- Q410:00Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)DAL 100 – 102 PHI · PHI 46% → 60% +14PHI 46% → 60%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML DAL +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- PHI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 42.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- DAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 112.5 – 114.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +47 | −4 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +52 Elo | DAL 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 116.816th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 115.513th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.7 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.5 | Offense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.916th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 8–716th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148621st of 30 |
| 16th of 301462 | Elo rating | 145319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–14 | 17–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.