Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds13
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints22
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–107
- Q410.5shot clock turnover116–107
- Q433.5Paul George defensive rebound116–107
- Q435.5Karl-Anthony Towns misses 25-foot three point jumper116–107
- Q447.9Tyrese Maxey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)116–107
- Q450.6VJ Edgecombe offensive rebound113–107
- Q456.2Tyrese Maxey misses driving layup113–107
- Q41:10Karl-Anthony Towns makes 22-foot step back jumpshot113–107
- Q41:20Tyrese Maxey personal foul113–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:08Jared McCain makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 94 – 92 NY · PHI 37% → 51% +14PHI 37% → 51%+14 pts
- Q48:04Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 97 – 92 NY · PHI 52% → 67% +15PHI 52% → 67%+15 pts
- Q43:07VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 108 – 102 NY · PHI 69% → 87% +18PHI 69% → 87%+18 pts
- Q42:24Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)PHI 108 – 105 NY · NY 10% → 28% +18NY 10% → 28%+18 pts
- Q42:01Andre Drummond makes layup (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 110 – 105 NY · PHI 75% → 88% +13PHI 75% → 88%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML PHI +200 / NY -245
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -8
- NY 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.8 pts
- NY: Elo 77.8%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -213
- PHI +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 112.0 – 118.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +20 | +35 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +218 Elo | NY 77.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 71.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 120.94th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 112.34th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +8.64th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 120.12nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.1 | Pace | 100.625th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 13–12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 147528th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301435 | Elo rating | 16423rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–9 | 17–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 16–8 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–11 NY in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- Apr 1PHI 91 @ NY 105Picked NY 86%Hit
- Feb 26PHI 105 @ NY 110Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 15NY 125 @ PHI 119Picked NY 65%Hit
- Nov 12NY 111 @ PHI 99Picked NY 59%Hit
- May 2NY 118 @ PHI 115PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Apr 30PHI 112 @ NY 106PlayoffsPicked NY 59%Miss
- Apr 28NY 97 @ PHI 92PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Apr 25NY 114 @ PHI 125PlayoffsPicked PHI 52%Hit