Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints31
- Jamal MurrayAssists14
- Jamal MurrayRebounds7
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints33
- Cooper FlaggAssists9
- Cooper FlaggRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–131
- Q40.7Nuggets offensive team rebound130–131
- Q40.7Peyton Watson misses 22-foot three point jumper130–131
- Q47.8Daniel Gafford enters the game for Ryan Nembhard130–131
- Q47.8Caleb Martin enters the game for Jaden Hardy130–131
- Q47.8shot clock turnover130–131
- Q48.0Mavericks offensive team rebound130–131
- Q48.4Ryan Nembhard misses 18-foot pullup jump shot130–131
- Q431.8Jaden Hardy enters the game for Daniel Gafford130–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:29Bruce Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 121 – 121 DAL · DEN 36% → 56% +20DEN 36% → 56%+20 pts
- Q43:17Cooper Flagg makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)DEN 121 – 126 DAL · DAL 61% → 81% +20DAL 61% → 81%+20 pts
- Q41:25Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DEN 125 – 131 DAL · DAL 80% → 96% +16DAL 80% → 96%+16 pts
- Q41:12Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointer (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 128 – 131 DAL · DEN 3% → 18% +15DEN 3% → 18%+15 pts
- Q431.8Nikola Jokic makes 3-foot two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 130 – 131 DAL · DEN 8% → 33% +25DEN 8% → 33%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML DEN -245 / DAL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 58.1%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -213
- DAL +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 121.5 – 115.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1656 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DAL and DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −34 | +75 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +57 Elo | DEN 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.1 | Points scored | 113.024th of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 116.919th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.1 | Margin | −3.923rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30123.2 | Offense rating | 107.528th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 111.28th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.8 | Pace | 103.47th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–2 | Road vs home | 8–919th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301656 | Elo rating | 144321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–11 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–9 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–10 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 5–3 DAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Dec 1DAL 131 @ DEN 121Picked DEN 81%Miss
- Jan 14DEN 118 @ DAL 99Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Jan 12DEN 112 @ DAL 101Picked DEN 67%Hit
- Nov 22DAL 123 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 64%Miss
- Nov 10DAL 120 @ DEN 122Picked DEN 54%Hit
- Mar 17DEN 105 @ DAL 107Picked DAL 54%Hit
- Dec 18DAL 104 @ DEN 130Picked DEN 61%Hit
- Nov 3DAL 114 @ DEN 125Picked DEN 65%Hit