Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints27
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds14
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–135
- Q47.9shot clock turnover112–135
- Q421.1Bruce Brown offensive rebound112–135
- Q422.8Julian Strawther misses driving floating jump shot112–135
- Q442.2Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound112–135
- Q445.5Walter Clayton Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot112–135
- Q452.5Jalen Pickett makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot112–135
- Q41:02Kyle Filipowski out of bounds lost ball turnover112–132
- Q41:03Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound112–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:38Nikola Jokic makes 15-foot jumper (Spencer Jones assists)UTAH 0 – 2 DEN · DEN 84% → 86% +2DEN 84% → 86%+2 pts
- Q111:00Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)UTAH 0 – 5 DEN · DEN 86% → 89% +3DEN 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q19:57Peyton Watson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Jones assists)UTAH 0 – 8 DEN · DEN 89% → 92% +3DEN 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q19:26Jamal Murray makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)UTAH 0 – 11 DEN · DEN 92% → 94% +2DEN 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q18:23Peyton Watson makes 23-foot running jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)UTAH 0 – 16 DEN · DEN 95% → 96% +1DEN 95% → 96%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -12.5
- ML UTAH +490 / DEN -675
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -9
- DEN 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 81.1%, market 83.7%
- Fair odds
- DEN -514
- UTAH +514 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 119.5 – 132.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 251.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1651 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −36 | UTAH: Usual rotation · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +253 Elo | DEN 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 83.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 83.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 83.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 124.71st of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.8 | Points allowed | 116.116th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−6.9 | Margin | +8.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 123.01st of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.4 | Defense rating | 114.518th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.1 | Pace | 100.624th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–8 | Road vs home | 8–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301532 | Opponent Elo | 148918th of 30 |
| 26th of 301398 | Elo rating | 16512nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–11 | 16–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 14–9 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 18–9 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–7 DEN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Mar 28UTAH 93 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 91%Hit
- Dec 30DEN 132 @ UTAH 121Picked DEN 72%Hit
- Nov 27DEN 122 @ UTAH 103Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Nov 2UTAH 103 @ DEN 129Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Apr 9DEN 111 @ UTAH 95Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Mar 9UTAH 121 @ DEN 142Picked DEN 73%Hit
- Jan 10DEN 111 @ UTAH 124Picked DEN 57%Miss
- Oct 30UTAH 102 @ DEN 110Picked DEN 73%Hit