Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints32
- Paolo BancheroAssists9
- Noah PendaRebounds12
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints27
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- Kevin LoveRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game128–127
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime128–127
- OT0.2(00:00.2) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)128–127
- OT0.9Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Jett Howard128–127
- OT0.9Jazz Full timeout128–127
- OT0.9Desmond Bane makes 6-foot two point shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)128–127
- OT4.1Jett Howard enters the game for Goga Bitadze126–127
- OT4.1Desmond Bane enters the game for Jonathan Isaac126–127
- OT4.1Magic Full timeout126–127
- OT4.1Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 1126–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45.2Isaiah Collier makes driving layupORL 118 – 118 UTAH · UTAH <1% → 49% +48UTAH <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT27.2Anthony Black makes 4-foot running dunk (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 125 – 123 UTAH · ORL 52% → 87% +35ORL 52% → 87%+35 pts
- OT4.1Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 126 – 126 UTAH · UTAH <1% → 49% +49UTAH <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT4.1Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 1ORL 126 – 127 UTAH · UTAH 49% → 91% +42UTAH 49% → 91%+42 pts
- OT0.9Desmond Bane makes 6-foot two point shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 128 – 127 UTAH · ORL <1% → >99% +100ORL <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -7.5
- ML ORL -305 / UTAH +245
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5.5
- ORL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- ORL: Elo 70.4%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -260
- UTAH +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 124.0 – 116.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −37 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Georges Niang −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +151 Elo | ORL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 119.67th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 126.830th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −7.226th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 119.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.7 | Pace | 104.34th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 7–820th of 30 |
| 7th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 15333rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301543 | Elo rating | 140026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−37 Elo- Georges Niang left foot−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–15 | 15–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–2 UTAH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.