Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints27
- Cooper FlaggAssists5
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds10
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints23
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists9
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–126
- Q415.5P.J. Washington makes 1-foot dunk (Max Christie assists)116–126
- Q421.8P.J. Washington defensive rebound114–126
- Q423.9Jimmy Butler III misses 32-foot three point jumper114–126
- Q445.1Brandon Williams makes 1-foot two point shot114–126
- Q450.2De'Anthony Melton makes 26-foot three pointer112–126
- Q41:11P.J. Washington makes 1-foot layup (Cooper Flagg assists)112–123
- Q41:18De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2110–123
- Q41:18De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 1 of 2110–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:05Moses Moody makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)DAL 13 – 16 GS · GS 71% → 77% +5GS 71% → 77%+5 pts
- Q14:37Max Christie makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Klay Thompson assists)DAL 18 – 18 GS · DAL 24% → 29% +6DAL 24% → 29%+6 pts
- Q11:28Al Horford makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)DAL 26 – 31 GS · GS 74% → 80% +5GS 74% → 80%+5 pts
- Q46:48Brandon Williams makes two point shot (Klay Thompson assists)DAL 99 – 104 GS · DAL 12% → 18% +6DAL 12% → 18%+6 pts
- Q45:10Max Christie makes 12-foot pullup jump shotDAL 102 – 108 GS · DAL 7% → 13% +5DAL 7% → 13%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -8.5
- ML DAL +250 / GS -310
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- GS: Elo 67.8%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -265
- DAL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 111.5 – 120.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +19 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +129 Elo | GS 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.6 | Points scored | 114.222nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 112.34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.7 | Margin | +1.911th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 111.722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 109.93rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.717th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–9 | Road vs home | 9–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15148th of 30 |
| 20th of 301448 | Elo rating | 155910th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–16 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–3 GS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Feb 23DAL 102 @ GS 126Picked GS 76%Hit
- Feb 12GS 107 @ DAL 111Picked GS 73%Miss
- Dec 15DAL 143 @ GS 133Picked GS 50%Miss
- Nov 12DAL 117 @ GS 120Picked GS 55%Hit
- Apr 5GS 106 @ DAL 108Picked GS 56%Miss
- Apr 2DAL 100 @ GS 104Picked DAL 53%Miss
- Mar 13GS 99 @ DAL 109Picked DAL 62%Hit
- Dec 30DAL 132 @ GS 122Picked GS 54%Miss