Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints21
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds12
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints26
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Quinten PostRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–120
- Q46.0Buddy Hield defensive rebound97–120
- Q49.0Jett Howard misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot97–120
- Q414.0Pat Spencer makes free throw 2 of 297–120
- Q414.0Pat Spencer makes free throw 1 of 297–119
- Q414.0Jamal Cain shooting foul97–118
- Q432.8Noah Penda makes 29-foot three pointer97–118
- Q438.9Buddy Hield makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)94–118
- Q441.9Pat Spencer offensive rebound94–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:03Anthony Black makes 23-foot running jump shot (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 66 – 64 GS · ORL 35% → 44% +9ORL 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q38:20Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 71 – 69 GS · GS 45% → 55% +10GS 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q37:25Stephen Curry makes 30-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)ORL 73 – 72 GS · GS 48% → 58% +10GS 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q35:06Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gary Payton II assists)ORL 75 – 80 GS · GS 67% → 76% +9GS 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q31:04Jimmy Butler III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)ORL 83 – 87 GS · GS 63% → 73% +11GS 63% → 73%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML ORL +190 / GS -230
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- GS: Elo 55.6%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- GS -202
- ORL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.0 – 117.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +18 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +39 Elo | GS 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 114.022nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 112.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.2 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 110.33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.6 | Pace | 101.819th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 8–49th of 30 |
| 8th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15167th of 30 |
| 11th of 301545 | Elo rating | 154412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–16 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–12 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–4 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.