LA Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints34
- James HardenAssists6
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints29
- Deni AvdijaAssists9
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–103
- Q414.1shot clock turnover119–103
- Q438.2Sidy Cissoko out of bounds bad pass turnover119–103
- Q442.7James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2119–103
- Q442.7Cam Christie enters the game for Kawhi Leonard118–103
- Q442.7Duop Reath enters the game for Toumani Camara118–103
- Q442.7Rayan Rupert enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe118–103
- Q442.7Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Deni Avdija118–103
- Q442.7James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2118–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:25Brook Lopez makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 67 – 72 POR · LAC 27% → 36% +9LAC 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q33:23Brook Lopez makes 29-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 75 – 72 POR · LAC 52% → 63% +11LAC 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q32:55Brook Lopez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 78 – 72 POR · LAC 63% → 73% +10LAC 63% → 73%+10 pts
- Q32:36Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)LAC 78 – 75 POR · POR 27% → 37% +10POR 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q31:06James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 84 – 77 POR · LAC 68% → 77% +10LAC 68% → 77%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAC -130 / POR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1
- LAC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 46.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -119
- POR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 115.0 – 112.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | +17 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −45 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +24 Elo | POR 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 117.113th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 120.525th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.5 | Margin | −3.421st of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 114.518th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.3 | Pace | 104.53rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–13 | Road vs home | 5–823rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 15294th of 30 |
| 15th of 301490 | Elo rating | 143022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+17 Elo- Damian Lillard injury/illness−45 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–19 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 7–1 POR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Oct 26POR 107 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 73%Hit
- Jan 16LAC 118 @ POR 89Picked LAC 72%Hit
- Dec 3POR 105 @ LAC 127Picked LAC 76%Hit
- Oct 30POR 106 @ LAC 105Picked LAC 75%Miss
- Mar 22LAC 125 @ POR 117Picked LAC 69%Hit
- Mar 20LAC 116 @ POR 103Picked LAC 67%Hit
- Dec 11POR 127 @ LAC 132Picked LAC 74%Hit
- Oct 25POR 111 @ LAC 123Picked LAC 55%Hit