Orlando Magic at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints23
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Anthony BlackRebounds7
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints25
- Deni AvdijaAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–106
- Q40.7Anthony Black defensive rebound110–106
- Q43.1Shaedon Sharpe misses 27-foot three point jumper110–106
- Q44.4Caleb Love enters the game for Donovan Clingan110–106
- Q44.4Trail Blazers Full timeout110–106
- Q44.4Toumani Camara defensive rebound110–106
- Q46.4Anthony Black misses free throw 2 of 2110–106
- Q46.4Donovan Clingan enters the game for Caleb Love110–106
- Q46.4Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2110–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:08Tyus Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 94 – 92 POR · ORL 46% → 61% +15ORL 46% → 61%+15 pts
- Q46:02Kris Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)ORL 98 – 97 POR · POR 27% → 43% +16POR 27% → 43%+16 pts
- Q43:05Wendell Carter Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)ORL 105 – 99 POR · ORL 74% → 89% +16ORL 74% → 89%+16 pts
- Q42:52Caleb Love makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)ORL 105 – 102 POR · POR 10% → 26% +16POR 10% → 26%+16 pts
- Q411.0Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2ORL 108 – 106 POR · ORL 80% → 95% +15ORL 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML ORL -122 / POR +102
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 56.3%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- ORL -111
- POR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 116.0 – 114.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −7 | +7 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −48, Robert Williams III −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +44 Elo | ORL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 117.514th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 120.925th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −3.421st of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 111.422nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 114.620th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.5 | Pace | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 5–722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 15333rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301530 | Elo rating | 143523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+7 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−48 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–17 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–2 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.