Detroit Pistons at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints55
- James HardenAssists7
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–112
- Q414.6shot clock turnover99–112
- Q435.5Nicolas Batum defensive rebound99–112
- Q437.9Cade Cunningham misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot99–112
- Q446.2James Harden makes free throw 2 of 299–112
- Q446.2Kobe Sanders enters the game for Kawhi Leonard99–111
- Q446.2James Harden makes free throw 1 of 299–111
- Q446.2(00:46.2) [Pistons] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Pistons] retain their timeout99–110
- Q446.2Pistons Full timeout99–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:00James Harden makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Kris Dunn assists)DET 6 – 16 LAC · LAC 57% → 63% +6LAC 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q14:04Nicolas Batum makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DET 14 – 25 LAC · LAC 60% → 67% +6LAC 60% → 67%+6 pts
- Q28:11Nicolas Batum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)DET 28 – 40 LAC · LAC 66% → 72% +7LAC 66% → 72%+7 pts
- Q38:32Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DET 56 – 68 LAC · LAC 72% → 79% +7LAC 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q38:10Duncan Robinson makes 28-foot three pointer (Tobias Harris assists)DET 59 – 68 LAC · DET 20% → 28% +7DET 20% → 28%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -155 / LAC +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4.5
- DET 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- DET: Elo 67.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- LAC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 114.0 – 110.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −35 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +124 Elo | DET 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 111.528th of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 115.312th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.6 | Margin | −3.823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 112.718th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 116.625th of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.1 | Pace | 98.030th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–5 | Road vs home | 5–824th of 30 |
| 30th of 301465 | Opponent Elo | 15185th of 30 |
| 6th of 301594 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–14 | 11–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.