Detroit Pistons at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists17
- Tobias HarrisRebounds7
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints31
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–131
- Q40.0Pistons offensive team rebound129–131
- Q40.0Cade Cunningham misses 27-foot three point shot129–131
- Q42.1Duncan Robinson enters the game for Javonte Green129–131
- Q42.1Pistons Full timeout129–131
- Q42.1Keyonte George makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot129–131
- Q418.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2129–129
- Q418.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2128–129
- Q418.1Jusuf Nurkic shooting foul127–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:14Keyonte George makes 3-foot driving dunkDET 125 – 129 UTAH · UTAH 70% → 88% +18UTAH 70% → 88%+18 pts
- Q41:04Cade Cunningham makes 5-foot driving dunkDET 127 – 129 UTAH · DET 10% → 28% +18DET 10% → 28%+18 pts
- Q418.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2DET 128 – 129 UTAH · DET 10% → 27% +17DET 10% → 27%+17 pts
- Q418.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2DET 129 – 129 UTAH · DET 27% → 52% +25DET 27% → 52%+25 pts
- Q42.1Keyonte George makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotDET 129 – 131 UTAH · UTAH 49% → >99% +51UTAH 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML DET -410 / UTAH +320
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7
- DET 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- DET: Elo 75.1%, market 77.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -338
- UTAH +338 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 127.5 – 118.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +14 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +191 Elo | DET 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 76.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 76.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 77.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 119.97th of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 127.430th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.9 | Margin | −7.627th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 120.029th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.0 | Pace | 104.34th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–4 | Road vs home | 7–1022nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301466 | Opponent Elo | 15333rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301602 | Elo rating | 138628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–13 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.