Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints37
- Cam SpencerAssists13
- GG JacksonRebounds9
Jazz- Kyle FilipowskiPoints25
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–128
- Q416.6Isaiah Collier out of bounds lost ball turnover137–128
- Q416.6(00:16.6) [Grizzlies] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Grizzlies] retain their timeout137–128
- Q416.6Grizzlies Full timeout137–128
- Q421.4Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.137–128
- Q421.4Javon Small enters the game for Santi Aldama137–128
- Q421.4Jahmai Mashack enters the game for Jaylen Wells137–128
- Q421.4Cam Spencer makes free throw 2 of 2137–128
- Q421.4Grizzlies offensive team rebound136–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:19Cam Spencer makes 27-foot three pointerMEM 76 – 74 UTAH · MEM 54% → 63% +9MEM 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q37:09Santi Aldama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)MEM 81 – 78 UTAH · MEM 57% → 66% +9MEM 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q36:52Taylor Hendricks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)MEM 81 – 81 UTAH · UTAH 34% → 43% +9UTAH 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q36:35Jaylen Wells makes 24-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 84 – 81 UTAH · MEM 57% → 66% +10MEM 57% → 66%+10 pts
- Q33:41Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 96 – 90 UTAH · MEM 67% → 76% +9MEM 67% → 76%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML MEM -175 / UTAH +145
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3.5
- MEM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MEM: Elo 63.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MEM -156
- UTAH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 123.5 – 119.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | UTAH and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −39 | −45 | MEM: Missing Cedric Coward −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +94 Elo | MEM 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 119.68th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 127.130th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −7.527th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 112.714th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 119.729th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.2 | Pace | 104.24th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 7–921st of 30 |
| 9th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15362nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301517 | Elo rating | 139327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−39 Elo- Cedric Coward left heel−10 Elo
Jazz
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–16 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 6–12 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 10–19 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 5–3 UTAH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Dec 12UTAH 130 @ MEM 126Picked MEM 71%Miss
- Mar 25MEM 140 @ UTAH 103Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Mar 12UTAH 115 @ MEM 122Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Jan 25UTAH 103 @ MEM 125Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Oct 23MEM 126 @ UTAH 124Picked MEM 55%Hit
- Nov 29UTAH 91 @ MEM 105Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Nov 10UTAH 127 @ MEM 121Picked MEM 59%Miss
- Nov 1MEM 109 @ UTAH 133Picked UTAH 56%Hit