Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints28
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists7
- Alex SarrRebounds11
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints37
- Cam SpencerAssists11
- Santi AldamaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–122
- Q40.5Jock Landale offensive rebound130–122
- Q43.5Jaylen Wells misses 25-foot three point jumper130–122
- Q48.0Bub Carrington makes free throw 2 of 2130–122
- Q48.0Bub Carrington makes free throw 1 of 2129–122
- Q48.0Jaylen Wells personal take foul128–122
- Q410.1Bub Carrington defensive rebound128–122
- Q413.5Cam Spencer misses 25-foot three point jumper128–122
- Q415.6Kentavious Caldwell-Pope enters the game for Cedric Coward128–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:41CJ McCollum makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotWSH 115 – 112 MEM · WSH 39% → 58% +20WSH 39% → 58%+20 pts
- Q44:32Santi Aldama makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cedric Coward assists)WSH 115 – 115 MEM · MEM 41% → 61% +20MEM 41% → 61%+20 pts
- Q43:00CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 118 – 119 MEM · WSH 14% → 33% +19WSH 14% → 33%+19 pts
- Q42:16Alex Sarr makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)WSH 121 – 119 MEM · WSH 33% → 61% +28WSH 33% → 61%+28 pts
- Q455.2Cam Spencer makes layup (Jock Landale assists)WSH 123 – 121 MEM · MEM 8% → 27% +18MEM 8% → 27%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -12.5
- ML WSH +440 / MEM -600
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -9.5
- MEM 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- MEM: Elo 81.8%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- MEM -463
- WSH +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.5 – 123.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1289 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −8 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Zach Edey −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +261 Elo | MEM 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 81.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 81.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 82.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 114.421st of 30 |
| 29th of 30126.4 | Points allowed | 115.212th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.4 | Margin | −0.818th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 110.425th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.6 | Defense rating | 111.28th of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.0 | Pace | 103.27th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–12 | Road vs home | 6–721st of 30 |
| 10th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15109th of 30 |
| 30th of 301289 | Elo rating | 153912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−8 Elo- Zach Edey left ankle−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–17 | 13–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 8–15 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10 | 9–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.