Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points28
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists4
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds12
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints21
- Jaden McDanielsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–110
- Q40.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound116–110
- Q40.4Donte DiVincenzo misses heave jump shot116–110
- Q40.6Jaylen Wells out of bounds bad pass turnover116–110
- Q43.8Naz Reid bad pass
turnover (Jaylen Wells steals)116–110
- Q44.0Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 2116–110
- Q44.0Brandon Clarke enters the game for Jock Landale115–110
- Q44.0Julius Randle enters the game for Jaylen Clark115–110
- Q44.0Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 2115–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:26Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point jumper (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)MEM 84 – 79 MIN · MEM 46% → 58% +11MEM 46% → 58%+11 pts
- Q46:58Jock Landale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)MEM 99 – 94 MIN · MEM 53% → 69% +16MEM 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q43:22Jock Landale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 104 – 99 MIN · MEM 60% → 80% +20MEM 60% → 80%+20 pts
- Q42:48Rudy Gobert makes 2-foot dunk (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MEM 104 – 101 MIN · MIN 17% → 30% +13MIN 17% → 30%+13 pts
- Q41:09Jock Landale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 109 – 103 MIN · MEM 82% → 97% +15MEM 82% → 97%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML MEM +215 / MIN -265
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 68.6%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -229
- MEM +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 110.0 – 116.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | −43 | MEM: Missing Zach Edey −23 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | MEM crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +135 Elo | MIN 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.3 | Points scored | 119.86th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 114.59th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +5.37th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 116.87th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.9 | Pace | 101.816th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 9–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 148818th of 30 |
| 14th of 301527 | Elo rating | 16085th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−38 Elo- Zach Edey left ankle injury−23 Elo
Timberwolves
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–14 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–3 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 5–11 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–17 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–5 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.