Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints18
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists7
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds9
Spurs- Dylan HarperPoints24
- Stephon CastleAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–119
- Q40.1Carter Bryant defensive rebound94–119
- Q40.1AJ Johnson misses two point shot94–119
- Q416.8Carter Bryant makes 14-foot pullup jump shot94–119
- Q426.8Spurs Full timeout94–117
- Q426.8Tre Johnson out of bounds lost ball turnover94–117
- Q427.9Jordan McLaughlin lost ball turnover (Jamir Watkins steals)94–117
- Q439.2Tristan Vukcevic makes driving layup (AJ Johnson assists)94–117
- Q448.6Carter Bryant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)92–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:36Alex Sarr makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)WSH 41 – 42 SA · WSH 11% → 15% +4WSH 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q26:17Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)WSH 41 – 45 SA · SA 85% → 89% +4SA 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q310:48CJ McCollum makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Alex Sarr assists)WSH 57 – 57 SA · WSH 16% → 20% +4WSH 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q310:01Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)WSH 58 – 60 SA · SA 77% → 83% +6SA 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q39:41De'Aaron Fox makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)WSH 58 – 63 SA · SA 83% → 89% +5SA 83% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SA -15.5
- ML WSH +750 / SA -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -13
- SA 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- SA: Elo 89.3%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -785
- WSH +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.5 – 128.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1292 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +73 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +369 Elo | SA 89.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 90.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 90.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 119.56th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.7 | Points allowed | 115.512th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−13.9 | Margin | +4.08th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 116.67th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.7 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.2 | Pace | 102.016th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 9–24th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15127th of 30 |
| 30th of 301292 | Elo rating | 153613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–16 | 15–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 8–14 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.