Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints16
- Cam SpencerAssists8
- Jock LandaleRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–119
- Q412.2Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound103–119
- Q414.5GG Jackson misses 14-foot pullup jump shot103–119
- Q435.1GG Jackson defensive rebound103–119
- Q435.1Christian Koloko blocks Cason Wallace 's 3-foot two point shot103–119
- Q435.5Cason Wallace offensive rebound103–119
- Q440.6Jaylen Wells blocks Brooks Barnhizer 's 6-foot driving layup103–119
- Q450.2GG Jackson enters the game for Jock Landale103–119
- Q450.2Jahmai Mashack enters the game for Cedric Coward103–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:34Cedric Coward makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)MEM 10 – 3 OKC · MEM 17% → 22% +4MEM 17% → 22%+4 pts
- Q18:20Jalen Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MEM 10 – 6 OKC · OKC 78% → 83% +4OKC 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q16:57Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot running jump shot (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 14 – 9 OKC · MEM 15% → 19% +4MEM 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q45:39Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three pointerMEM 97 – 101 OKC · MEM 7% → 15% +8MEM 7% → 15%+8 pts
- Q45:17Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 97 – 104 OKC · OKC 85% → 93% +8OKC 85% → 93%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML MEM +750 / OKC -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10
- OKC 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 83.8%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -785
- MEM +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 109.5 – 125.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1746 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | −2 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Missing Aaron Wiggins −6 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +285 Elo | OKC 83.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 87.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 86.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 122.52nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 106.41st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +16.11st of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 118.64th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 103.01st of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.520th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 13–01st of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 146929th of 30 |
| 14th of 301520 | Elo rating | 17461st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−2 Elo- Aaron Wiggins right adductor−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–15 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | — |
| Overs–unders | 10–18 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–12 OKC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 12.
- Nov 9OKC 114 @ MEM 100Picked OKC 79%Hit
- Apr 26OKC 117 @ MEM 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 89%Hit
- Apr 24OKC 114 @ MEM 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 77%Hit
- Apr 22MEM 99 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 20MEM 80 @ OKC 131PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Mar 27MEM 104 @ OKC 125Picked OKC 80%Hit
- Mar 5OKC 120 @ MEM 103Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Feb 8OKC 125 @ MEM 112Picked OKC 53%Hit