Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Alex CarusoRebounds12
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Julius RandleAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–112
- Q40.1Thunder offensive team rebound107–112
- Q40.4Jalen Williams misses heave jump shot107–112
- Q41.1Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 2 of 2107–112
- Q41.1Rob Dillingham enters the game for Anthony Edwards107–111
- Q41.1Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 1 of 2107–111
- Q41.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal take foul107–110
- Q41.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lost ball turnover (Anthony Edwards steals)107–110
- Q411.9Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2107–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:28Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 11-foot jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 100 – 100 MIN · OKC 40% → 55% +15OKC 40% → 55%+15 pts
- Q41:56Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 105 – 102 MIN · OKC 54% → 81% +27OKC 54% → 81%+27 pts
- Q41:40Naz Reid makes 7-foot floating jump shot (Julius Randle assists)OKC 105 – 104 MIN · MIN 18% → 35% +18MIN 18% → 35%+18 pts
- Q438.5Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 107 – 108 MIN · MIN 17% → 65% +48MIN 17% → 65%+48 pts
- Q411.9Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2OKC 107 – 109 MIN · MIN 78% → 94% +16MIN 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -5.5
- ML OKC -258 / MIN +210
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 64.7%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -223
- MIN +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.0 – 113.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1756 | 1596 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +46 | +25 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +105 Elo | OKC 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.0 | Points scored | 119.48th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.1 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+16.9 | Margin | +4.98th of 30 |
| 4th of 30119.2 | Offense rating | 116.18th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.8 | Defense rating | 111.310th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.5 | Pace | 102.213th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–1 | Road vs home | 9–59th of 30 |
| 30th of 301463 | Opponent Elo | 149216th of 30 |
| 1st of 301756 | Elo rating | 15965th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–12 | 10–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–12 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | — | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 9–5 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.
- Nov 26MIN 105 @ OKC 113Picked OKC 79%Hit
- May 28MIN 94 @ OKC 124PlayoffsPicked OKC 75%Hit
- May 26OKC 128 @ MIN 126PlayoffsPicked OKC 57%Hit
- May 24OKC 101 @ MIN 143PlayoffsPicked OKC 57%Miss
- May 22MIN 103 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 74%Hit
- May 20MIN 88 @ OKC 114PlayoffsPicked OKC 71%Hit
- Feb 24MIN 131 @ OKC 128Picked OKC 83%Miss
- Feb 23OKC 130 @ MIN 123Picked OKC 75%Hit