Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints27
- Jaylen BrownAssists10
- Derrick WhiteRebounds7
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints37
- Jusuf NurkicAssists8
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–119
- Q48.1shot clock turnover129–119
- Q429.4Derrick White defensive rebound129–119
- Q432.3Derrick White blocks Walter Clayton Jr. 's 3-foot driving layup129–119
- Q441.6Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2129–119
- Q441.6Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Jaylen Brown128–119
- Q441.6Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Anfernee Simons128–119
- Q441.6Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2128–119
- Q441.6Cody Williams personal foul127–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:07Isaiah Collier makes 22-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)BOS 81 – 83 UTAH · UTAH 33% → 43% +10UTAH 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q34:20Jusuf Nurkic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)BOS 85 – 88 UTAH · UTAH 37% → 47% +10UTAH 37% → 47%+10 pts
- Q34:03Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 88 – 88 UTAH · BOS 53% → 63% +11BOS 53% → 63%+11 pts
- Q411:27Derrick White makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Anfernee Simons assists)BOS 101 – 96 UTAH · BOS 69% → 79% +10BOS 69% → 79%+10 pts
- Q48:21Derrick White makes 29-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)BOS 110 – 105 UTAH · BOS 69% → 81% +12BOS 69% → 81%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML BOS -298 / UTAH +240
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 68.7%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -255
- UTAH +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 126.0 – 117.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1630 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +22 | BOS: Usual rotation · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +136 Elo | BOS 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 71.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 120.56th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 127.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.0 | Margin | −6.626th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 113.515th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 119.729th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.4 | Pace | 104.43rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 9th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 8–1020th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15332nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301630 | Elo rating | 142323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–14 | 18–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–1 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.