Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints33
- Payton PritchardAssists10
- Luka GarzaRebounds10
Raptors- Sandro MamukelashviliPoints24
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–96
- Q421.3shot clock turnover112–96
- Q442.8Payton Pritchard defensive rebound112–96
- Q446.5Ja'Kobe Walter misses 25-foot three point jumper112–96
- Q41:02Payton Pritchard makes tip shot112–96
- Q41:02Payton Pritchard offensive rebound110–96
- Q41:03Anfernee Simons misses driving floating jump shot110–96
- Q41:05Anfernee Simons offensive rebound110–96
- Q41:09Payton Pritchard misses 8-foot two point shot110–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:30Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)BOS 58 – 60 TOR · TOR 49% → 58% +9TOR 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q37:19Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)BOS 58 – 63 TOR · TOR 58% → 67% +9TOR 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q34:05Sam Hauser makes 27-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 67 – 69 TOR · BOS 31% → 41% +10BOS 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q33:28Payton Pritchard makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 70 – 69 TOR · BOS 41% → 52% +11BOS 41% → 52%+11 pts
- Q31:41Ja'Kobe Walter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)BOS 75 – 80 TOR · TOR 59% → 70% +11TOR 59% → 70%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -1.5
- ML BOS +102 / TOR -122
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1
- TOR 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 45.0%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- BOS +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 110.0 – 111.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1623 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −55 | +9 | BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −42 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +35 Elo | BOS 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 115.319th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 112.96th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 113.412th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.19th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.4 | Pace | 101.222nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 8–614th of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 147528th of 30 |
| 4th of 301623 | Elo rating | 146117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−55 Elo- Jaylen Brown injury/illness−42 Elo
Raptors
+9 Elo- Jakob Poeltl injury/illness−21 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–12 | 13–15 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–1 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Dec 7BOS 121 @ TOR 113Picked BOS 58%Hit
- Feb 25BOS 111 @ TOR 101Picked BOS 82%Hit
- Jan 15BOS 97 @ TOR 110Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Dec 31TOR 71 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 91%Hit
- Nov 16TOR 123 @ BOS 126Picked BOS 90%Hit
- Jan 15BOS 105 @ TOR 96Picked BOS 64%Hit
- Dec 29TOR 118 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 65%Hit
- Nov 17BOS 108 @ TOR 105Picked BOS 64%Hit