Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints29
- Jamal SheadAssists11
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints24
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists13
- Bobby PortisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–105
- Q43.0Ryan Rollins makes 15-foot pullup jump shot111–105
- Q410.4Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2111–103
- Q410.4Raptors offensive team rebound110–103
- Q410.4Immanuel Quickley misses free throw 1 of 2110–103
- Q410.4Kevin Porter Jr. personal foul110–103
- Q416.9Myles Turner makes 29-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)110–103
- Q426.3Jamal Shead personal take foul110–100
- Q430.9Jamal Shead makes driving layup (Immanuel Quickley assists)110–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:43Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)TOR 57 – 56 MIL · MIL 27% → 38% +11MIL 27% → 38%+11 pts
- Q48:08Kevin Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)TOR 89 – 85 MIL · MIL 15% → 26% +11MIL 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q47:34Bobby Portis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)TOR 91 – 88 MIL · MIL 18% → 30% +12MIL 18% → 30%+12 pts
- Q45:51Kevin Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Myles Turner assists)TOR 96 – 91 MIL · MIL 10% → 19% +10MIL 10% → 19%+10 pts
- Q45:33Brandon Ingram makes 31-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 99 – 91 MIL · TOR 81% → 91% +10TOR 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -4.5
- ML TOR -192 / MIL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1.5
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.3%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -171
- MIL +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.5 – 107.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −78 | TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +44 Elo | TOR 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 113.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 117.721st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −3.821st of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 112.417th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 116.225th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.526th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 8–717th of 30 |
| 27th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 148123rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301454 | Elo rating | 145817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+5 Elo- Jakob Poeltl lower back injury−21 Elo
Bucks
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–5 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 4MIL 100 @ TOR 128Picked TOR 54%Hit
- Oct 24MIL 122 @ TOR 116Picked TOR 54%Miss
- Jan 17TOR 112 @ MIL 130Picked MIL 82%Hit
- Jan 6MIL 128 @ TOR 104Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Nov 12TOR 85 @ MIL 99Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Apr 5TOR 117 @ MIL 111Picked MIL 75%Miss
- Nov 15MIL 128 @ TOR 112Picked TOR 61%Miss
- Nov 1MIL 111 @ TOR 130Picked TOR 55%Hit