Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints28
- Jamal SheadAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints20
- Norman PowellAssists4
- Kel'el WareRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–96
- Q46.3Scottie Barnes defensive rebound106–96
- Q49.4Norman Powell misses 28-foot three point jumper106–96
- Q417.5Jakob Poeltl makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)106–96
- Q426.5Brandon Ingram defensive rebound104–96
- Q429.4Norman Powell misses 1-foot two point shot104–96
- Q430.6Norman Powell offensive rebound104–96
- Q433.7Norman Powell misses 23-foot three point jumper104–96
- Q435.5Heat Full timeout104–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:30Simone Fontecchio makes 24-foot three point shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)TOR 65 – 68 MIA · MIA 57% → 67% +10MIA 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q32:54Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 70 – 68 MIA · TOR 39% → 51% +11TOR 39% → 51%+11 pts
- Q336.3Dru Smith makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotTOR 72 – 77 MIA · MIA 64% → 75% +11MIA 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q410:34Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)TOR 79 – 79 MIA · TOR 32% → 44% +13TOR 32% → 44%+13 pts
- Q47:31Jamal Shead makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 91 – 81 MIA · TOR 79% → 88% +10TOR 79% → 88%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML TOR +154 / MIA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3.5
- MIA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 64.4%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -165
- TOR +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 114.5 – 119.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +34 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +103 Elo | MIA 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 63.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 121.73rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 118.222nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +3.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 113.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 110.04th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.4 | Pace | 106.91st of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 10–36th of 30 |
| 25th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 15119th of 30 |
| 21st of 301440 | Elo rating | 149615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+34 Elo- Tyler Herro right toe−22 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–15 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–6 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Feb 21MIA 120 @ TOR 111Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Dec 12TOR 104 @ MIA 114Picked MIA 81%Hit
- Dec 1MIA 116 @ TOR 119Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 29TOR 111 @ MIA 121Picked MIA 74%Hit
- Apr 14TOR 103 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 86%Hit
- Apr 12TOR 103 @ MIA 125Picked MIA 80%Hit
- Jan 17MIA 97 @ TOR 121Picked MIA 59%Miss
- Dec 6MIA 112 @ TOR 103Picked TOR 52%Miss