Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Gary Trent Jr.Points20
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists7
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds7
Nets- Egor DeminPoints17
- Michael Porter Jr.Assists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game82–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter82–127
- Q423.5shot clock turnover82–127
- Q445.8Drake Powell defensive rebound82–127
- Q448.6Cole Anthony misses 25-foot three point jumper82–127
- Q458.6Pete Nance defensive rebound82–127
- Q41:00Danny Wolf misses layup82–127
- Q41:12Nolan Traore defensive rebound82–127
- Q41:17Andre Jackson Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper82–127
- Q41:40Jalen Wilson makes 1-foot layup (Danny Wolf assists)82–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:54Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point shotMIL 12 – 15 BKN · BKN 48% → 54% +7BKN 48% → 54%+7 pts
- Q15:03Ziaire Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)MIL 18 – 22 BKN · BKN 50% → 57% +7BKN 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q13:30Gary Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 21 – 24 BKN · MIL 39% → 46% +7MIL 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q13:05Tyrese Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)MIL 21 – 27 BKN · BKN 55% → 61% +7BKN 55% → 61%+7 pts
- Q11:26Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 25 – 31 BKN · MIL 32% → 38% +7MIL 32% → 38%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML MIL -122 / BKN +102
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 50.3%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -111
- BKN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 108.5 – 107.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1358 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −73 | +19 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIL crossed 1 time zone and BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +2 Elo | MIL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 109.530th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 117.319th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −7.826th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 109.826th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 117.626th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.5 | Pace | 99.727th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–8 | Road vs home | 2–1030th of 30 |
| 24th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 148916th of 30 |
| 16th of 301488 | Elo rating | 135828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–14 | 11–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–3 BKN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Nov 29BKN 99 @ MIL 116Picked MIL 82%Hit
- Jan 2BKN 113 @ MIL 110Picked MIL 84%Miss
- Dec 26BKN 111 @ MIL 105Picked MIL 69%Miss
- Dec 8MIL 118 @ BKN 113Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Oct 27MIL 102 @ BKN 115Picked MIL 76%Miss
- Mar 21BKN 108 @ MIL 115Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Dec 27MIL 144 @ BKN 122Picked MIL 68%Hit
- Nov 6MIL 129 @ BKN 125Picked BKN 59%Miss