Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Kel'el WarePoints24
- Kasparas JakucionisAssists4
- Kel'el WareRebounds14
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints33
- Jaylen BrownAssists7
- Jaylen BrownRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–129
- Q40.7Myron Gardner personal take foul116–129
- Q48.5Kasparas Jakucionis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Vladislav Goldin assists)116–129
- Q415.7shot clock turnover113–129
- Q440.5Keshad Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)113–129
- Q444.2Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound110–129
- Q446.6Myron Gardner misses 22-foot three point jumper110–129
- Q454.7shot clock turnover110–129
- Q454.7Vladislav Goldin enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.110–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:15Kel'el Ware makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)MIA 75 – 71 BOS · MIA 39% → 48% +10MIA 39% → 48%+10 pts
- Q35:51Kasparas Jakucionis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)MIA 80 – 73 BOS · MIA 49% → 59% +10MIA 49% → 59%+10 pts
- Q34:21Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)MIA 80 – 81 BOS · BOS 57% → 67% +10BOS 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q31:08Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)MIA 86 – 90 BOS · BOS 66% → 76% +10BOS 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q411:24Sam Hauser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)MIA 91 – 95 BOS · BOS 65% → 76% +11BOS 65% → 76%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -7.5
- ML MIA +245 / BOS -305
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4.5
- BOS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 67.8%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -260
- MIA +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 113.0 – 120.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1616 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +57 | −16 | MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +129 Elo | BOS 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.2 | Points scored | 116.217th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 110.82nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +5.36th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 118.55th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Pace | 98.130th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 8–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149216th of 30 |
| 15th of 301490 | Elo rating | 16164th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+57 Elo- Tyler Herro toe injury−22 Elo
Celtics
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–12 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–10 BOS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.
- Apr 2MIA 124 @ BOS 103Picked BOS 79%Miss
- Mar 14BOS 103 @ MIA 91Picked BOS 76%Hit
- Feb 10BOS 103 @ MIA 85Picked BOS 73%Hit
- Dec 2MIA 89 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 77%Hit
- May 1MIA 84 @ BOS 118PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit
- Apr 29BOS 102 @ MIA 88PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 104 @ MIA 84PlayoffsPicked BOS 66%Hit
- Apr 24MIA 111 @ BOS 101PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss