Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints24
- Davion MitchellAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds17
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points28
- Nic ClaxtonAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–95
- Q417.2Heat defensive team rebound106–95
- Q419.8Egor Demin misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot106–95
- Q434.0Kel'el Ware makes free throw 2 of 2106–95
- Q434.0Kel'el Ware makes free throw 1 of 2105–95
- Q434.0Noah Clowney personal foul104–95
- Q443.0Noah Clowney bad pass
turnover (Norman Powell steals)104–95
- Q443.4Norman Powell lost ball turnover (Nic Claxton steals)104–95
- Q450.2Michael Porter Jr. lost ball turnover (Andrew Wiggins steals)104–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:40Simone Fontecchio makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dru Smith assists)MIA 71 – 69 BKN · MIA 58% → 69% +11MIA 58% → 69%+11 pts
- Q48:02Noah Clowney makes 6-foot two point shot (Nic Claxton assists)MIA 79 – 77 BKN · BKN 23% → 32% +8BKN 23% → 32%+8 pts
- Q46:14Kel'el Ware makes tip in dunkMIA 82 – 77 BKN · MIA 74% → 82% +9MIA 74% → 82%+9 pts
- Q45:08Egor Demin makes 25-foot three pointer (Nic Claxton assists)MIA 86 – 82 BKN · BKN 10% → 21% +11BKN 10% → 21%+11 pts
- Q44:55Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 89 – 82 BKN · MIA 80% → 91% +11MIA 80% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML MIA -285 / BKN +230
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.4%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -244
- BKN +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 118.5 – 110.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | +32 | MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +59 Elo | MIA 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.7 | Points scored | 110.230th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 115.914th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −5.725th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 110.525th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 116.225th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.7 | Pace | 99.727th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 3–1028th of 30 |
| 10th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 148818th of 30 |
| 15th of 301482 | Elo rating | 138827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+33 Elo- Tyler Herro toe injury−21 Elo
Nets
+32 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring strain−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–12 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–3 BKN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.