Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints29
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds7
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints32
- Dylan HarperAssists12
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–114
- Q41.5shot clock turnover127–114
- Q422.1Cody Williams defensive rebound127–114
- Q425.9Dylan Harper misses 16-foot jumper127–114
- Q429.2Spurs offensive team rebound127–114
- Q430.7Dylan Harper misses 25-foot three point jumper127–114
- Q438.6Dylan Harper defensive rebound127–114
- Q441.0Jusuf Nurkic misses free throw 2 of 2127–114
- Q441.0Cody Williams enters the game for Lauri Markkanen127–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:15Stephon Castle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)UTAH 106 – 104 SA · SA 42% → 57% +15SA 42% → 57%+15 pts
- Q46:54Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)UTAH 111 – 108 SA · UTAH 35% → 51% +16UTAH 35% → 51%+16 pts
- Q44:23Brice Sensabaugh makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 116 – 110 SA · UTAH 58% → 76% +18UTAH 58% → 76%+18 pts
- Q43:17Stephon Castle makes driving layupUTAH 116 – 112 SA · SA 18% → 30% +12SA 18% → 30%+12 pts
- Q42:51Lauri Markkanen makes tip in dunkUTAH 118 – 112 SA · UTAH 73% → 85% +12UTAH 73% → 85%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SA -14.5
- ML UTAH +550 / SA -800
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -11.5
- SA 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- SA: Elo 86.6%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -578
- UTAH +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 115.0 – 129.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +18 | +50 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +324 Elo | SA 86.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 83.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 84.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.3 | Points scored | 120.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.5 | Points allowed | 113.58th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.2 | Margin | +6.56th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 117.76th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.0 | Defense rating | 111.37th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Pace | 101.618th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–9 | Road vs home | 11–24th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301535 | Opponent Elo | 150514th of 30 |
| 28th of 301395 | Elo rating | 15986th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–13 | 19–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 20–10 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–4 SA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.