San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints29
- Stephon CastleAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints22
- Jalen WilliamsAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–102
- Q41.5shot clock turnover117–102
- Q425.5Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound117–102
- Q428.7Kenrich Williams misses running pullup jump shot117–102
- Q432.6Kenrich Williams defensive rebound117–102
- Q435.3Lindy Waters III misses 26-foot three point jumper117–102
- Q445.3Branden Carlson makes 3-foot dunk (Kenrich Williams assists)117–102
- Q447.3Kenrich Williams offensive rebound117–100
- Q450.8Branden Carlson misses 26-foot three point jumper117–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:31Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 58 – 48 OKC · SA 48% → 56% +8SA 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q24:07Devin Vassell makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Luke Kornet assists)SA 61 – 48 OKC · SA 57% → 65% +8SA 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q226.7Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)SA 69 – 60 OKC · OKC 34% → 43% +8OKC 34% → 43%+8 pts
- Q36:57Victor Wembanyama makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 80 – 68 OKC · SA 63% → 72% +9SA 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q48:34Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three pointer (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)SA 97 – 88 OKC · OKC 12% → 20% +9OKC 12% → 20%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML SA +280 / OKC -355
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5
- OKC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 69.0%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -296
- SA +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 112.0 – 122.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1728 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +78 | +29 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +139 Elo | OKC 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 77.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.2 | Points scored | 121.92nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 107.01st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.2 | Margin | +14.91st of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 118.54th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 104.01st of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 5th of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 14–01st of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 147528th of 30 |
| 7th of 301577 | Elo rating | 17281st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–12 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–5 OKC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Dec 23OKC 110 @ SA 130Picked OKC 67%Miss
- Dec 13SA 111 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 82%Miss
- Mar 2OKC 146 @ SA 132Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 19OKC 104 @ SA 110Picked OKC 79%Miss
- Oct 30SA 93 @ OKC 105Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 10SA 89 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 82%Hit
- Feb 29OKC 118 @ SA 132Picked OKC 74%Miss
- Jan 24OKC 140 @ SA 114Picked OKC 69%Hit