San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints26
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints23
- Jalen JohnsonAssists6
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–98
- Q410.1Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound126–98
- Q412.2Asa Newell misses free throw 1 of 1126–98
- Q412.2Jeremy Sochan shooting foul126–98
- Q412.2Asa Newell makes driving layup (Keaton Wallace assists)126–98
- Q425.6shot clock turnover126–96
- Q439.8Jordan McLaughlin offensive rebound126–96
- Q442.8Kelly Olynyk misses 23-foot running jump shot126–96
- Q446.6Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound126–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:47Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)SA 5 – 3 ATL · ATL 30% → 36% +6ATL 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q19:29Onyeka Okongwu makes 26-foot running jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)SA 5 – 6 ATL · ATL 36% → 42% +6ATL 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q18:56Devin Vassell makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 8 – 6 ATL · SA 58% → 64% +6SA 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q18:22Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 11 – 6 ATL · SA 64% → 70% +6SA 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q17:10Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)SA 13 – 11 ATL · ATL 30% → 36% +6ATL 30% → 36%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML SA -170 / ATL +142
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -3
- SA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- SA: Elo 62.7%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- SA -152
- ATL +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 121.0 – 117.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +72 | +1 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −27, Trae Young −26 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +90 Elo | SA 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 118.313th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 118.022nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 113.617th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.9 | Pace | 102.910th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 7th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 5–622nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148123rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301539 | Elo rating | 147216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+1 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−27 Elo
- Trae Young right knee injury−26 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–11 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–2 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.