Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints25
- Dylan HarperAssists10
- Julian ChampagnieRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–130
- Q411.3Carter Bryant defensive rebound110–130
- Q414.7Brooks Barnhizer misses 9-foot pullup jump shot110–130
- Q425.4Jordan McLaughlin makes 2-foot layup (Kelly Olynyk assists)110–130
- Q442.2Kenrich Williams makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Isaiah Joe assists)110–128
- Q456.1Carter Bryant makes 13-foot pullup jump shot108–128
- Q41:11Chris Youngblood makes 27-foot three point jumper108–126
- Q41:17Isaiah Joe defensive rebound105–126
- Q41:23Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 2 of 2105–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:38Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)OKC 76 – 77 SA · SA 33% → 43% +10SA 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q32:26Keldon Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)OKC 76 – 84 SA · SA 59% → 70% +11SA 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q31:25Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 79 – 84 SA · OKC 29% → 40% +11OKC 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q31:09Keldon Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)OKC 79 – 87 SA · SA 61% → 71% +11SA 61% → 71%+11 pts
- Q31.1Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 82 – 87 SA · OKC 27% → 38% +11OKC 27% → 38%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML OKC -230 / SA +190
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3
- OKC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 61.0%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -202
- SA +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 121.5 – 115.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1750 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | +72 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +78 Elo | OKC 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.3 | Points scored | 119.86th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.2 | Points allowed | 114.110th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+16.1 | Margin | +5.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 116.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.9 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–2 | Road vs home | 10–24th of 30 |
| 28th of 301471 | Opponent Elo | 149416th of 30 |
| 1st of 301750 | Elo rating | 155510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–13 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | — | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–3 SA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Dec 13SA 111 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 82%Miss
- Mar 2OKC 146 @ SA 132Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 19OKC 104 @ SA 110Picked OKC 79%Miss
- Oct 30SA 93 @ OKC 105Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 10SA 89 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 82%Hit
- Feb 29OKC 118 @ SA 132Picked OKC 74%Miss
- Jan 24OKC 140 @ SA 114Picked OKC 69%Hit
- Nov 14SA 87 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 69%Hit